UFC Nashville Gambling Preview: Will Cory Sandhagen secure a title shot? Plus, Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

By MySportsHeaven Content Team On Aug 5, 2023

This Saturday is a big one in combat sports, with UFC Nashville headlined by a catchweight bout between Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font, and the highly anticipated boxing match between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz in Dallas. There’s a lot of punching to take place this weekend, so let’s jump right into the bets.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Rob Font, +275

Cory Sandhagen is on a great run at the moment, but the odds are simply too wide for this fight.

Sandhagen is an extremely capable, well-rounded fighter coming off back-to-back wins over top-10 guys, but when you look at his résumé, something should jump out: He struggles with high-volume strikers. Font is exactly that. The New England Cartel fighter is one of the best boxers in the bantamweight division, and though he’s getting up there in years (36), he is still difficult for anyone to beat in a striking match unless they’re throwing bombs back at him. That’s never been Sandhagen’s style, meaning we’re in for a prolonged kickboxing match, which may still favor Sandhagen and his diversity of attacks, but it’s much closer than this line suggests. A Font By Decision prop bet at +550 is also intriguing, though most people don’t want to double up action on one fighter.

Aleksa Camur, +124

Camur is coming off a two-year layoff and isn’t the best fighter in the world, so this is far from a guarantee. But the more important question is: Should Tanner Boser be a betting favorite over anyone right now? Boser has won one fight in his past five and recently did the old struggling fighter move of dropping down a weight class to spark something. That didn’t exactly work out for him, as Ion Cutelaba absolutely trounced “Bulldozer” in just over two minutes. Camur is dangerous enough on the feet that this fight should be a pick’em, so there’s a little bit of value on the Strong Style fighter.

Prop Bets

Jake Paul by Decision, +300

Jake Paul is not good at boxing … but he’s better than Nate Diaz. This fight doesn’t need some major breakdown to explain because we’ve seen it four times before at this point: Paul is young, athletic, powerful, and legitimately dedicated to boxing, and he’s going against a guy with barely any boxing experience who is on the wrong side of the aging curve. This isn’t rocket science. And getting the Decision prop at these odds feels insane. Whatever shortcomings Diaz has as a fighter, toughness has never been one of them. The man has been stopped three times in his career and one of those was on cuts. Paul couldn’t get Anderson Silva out of the ring and Silva is much more faded than Diaz. Paul is going to win on the cards.

Billy Quarantillo to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, +110

On the prelims at UFC Nashville, Quarantillo takes on Damon Jackson in a featherweight contest that is guaranteed to be a barnburner. Quarantillo is a captivating offensive force with a super-high volume, and that should be enough to get past the mercurial Jackson — but more importantly, it should be enough to finish “Action,” as in his five career losses, Jackson was finished in all of them.

Parlay of the Week

Tatiana Suarez, -375

Suarez faces former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade in the co-main event of UFC Nashville and it figures to be a good one for the undefeated prospect. Andrade is coming off back-to-back losses, including a terrible showing against Erin Blanchfield at 125 pounds that Suarez is more than capable of recreating with her takedowns and top control. This is also Andrade’s fourth fight of the year and a pretty quick turnaround from getting smashed by Yan Xiaonan in May, so Suarez should be in great shape.

Cory Sandhagen/Rob Font Over 2.5 Rounds, -215

As mentioned above, Sandhagen and Font are in for a long night at the office on Saturday. In their combined 46 fights, the two bantamweights have been stopped twice collectively. Both are extremely durable, technical fighters, and this one is going to see the championship rounds, if not the scorecards.

Parlay these two bets together for -118 odds.

Longshot of the Week

Kennedy Nzechukwu to Win by Submission, +900

I’m a big fan of Nzechukwu and think he’s the dark horse at 205 pounds right now. Simply a gigantic human being, Nzechukwu is starting to put technique behind his physical gifts, which makes him very dangerous, particularly for an aging veteran like Dustin Jacoby. Jacoby is certainly the more established and technical kickboxer, but as we saw in his May against Devin Clark, Nzechukwu is dangerous from any position and starting to learn submissions. I think we see a grappling focus from Nzechukwu to take advantage of Jacoby’s lackluster wrestling and ground game, and once it’s to the mat, Nzechukwu’s long arms can sneak into chokes out of nowhere.

Wrap Up

Big week last week and we certainly love that. This week it’s a combat double-header so let’s try to keep things rolling.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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