The most deceiving thing about the United States women’s national team’s chances of a three-peat isn’t that it has a major target on its back and therefore is part of the game plan to knock out from every other nation in Australia and New Zealand. That was true for the 2019 showcase in France. How’d that work out for the rest of the world? Hmmmm, not so good. The Americans have an incredibly tough draw out of Group E. The highest-ranked team from the play-off to get into the tournament, Portugal, the team the USWNT beat in the last World Cup Final, the Netherlands, and an upstart Vietnam squad will give the Americans rocky waters to be part of the last 16.
It’d be a shocker if the USWNT doesn’t win at least one knockout-stage game, much less not get out of the group. But real talk, while it would never be predicted, it’s on the table. It might be that salt shaker that barely hangs on the edge of your fine dining table, but it’s unmistakably there. The United States is the world’s No. 1 and should still win the group. It’s absolutely not a given and you can’t describe the group stage as a breeze, like you could’ve in 2019 when the US beat Thailand 13-0 in a World Cup game. If the Americans score 13 goals total in the group stage, consider that a major miracle.
Let’s start with the biggest unknown of Vietnam. While the Netherlands and Portugal should both be tough tests, their combined biggest green flag is being known entities. The Americans know what to expect from them at a tournament of this magnitude and many played against their roster before, especially in the case of Holland. Most of the Vietnamese roster plays domestically, which is a trend with teams in the tournament, compared to the diaspora of the men’s tournament. Vietnam’s best player is captain Huỳnh Như, and she plays professionally in Portugal. The striker has 101 appearances for her country and 67 goals. So if the US defenders can’t slow her down? Oh boy. Upset and blowout are both on the table here.
From the 2019 World Cup Dutch runners-up, 12 players return to the global stage to face the US again. The Dutch got a lot younger in net with Sari van Veenendaal not returning. Yet, the Netherlands are likely the biggest threat to keep the United States from winning the group with 10 players with at least 60 international appearances. Oddly enough, this is only the Netherlands’ third all-time showing at the Women’s World Cup, after nearly winning the whole damn thing four years ago and a Round of 16 exit in 2015.
Portugal needed the intercontinental playoffs to qualify for the tournament, but is still a legitimate threat to advance in the tournament. On paper, it should be the Netherlands or Portugal finishing as runners-up in the group, with the biggest thing holding the Portuguese back being its attack. Portugal is solid defensively and in the midfield, but don’t have that dependable striker that could pot goals like the other three teams in the group.
And that leaves the United States, who come into the tournament with question marks despite having an incredibly stacked team. With injuries to Mallory Swanson and Catarina Macario, who will be the striker of choice? And it’s not a sure thing with Alex Morgan. With Becky Sauerbrunn not called into the squad due to a foot injury, center back is a major concern. Yet, no one will be surprised if the United States adds a fifth star to its crest. The journey will be harder this year though and a fifth Women’s World Cup victory is far from a sure thing.
